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Target or trap? Economist tells sixth-formers why the Government’s 2% inflation goal is too low

Old Elizabethan academic and economist Sandeep Mazumder queried the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target and suggested it should be higher – not because it is too cautious, but paradoxically because it is too risky.

Sandeep (OE 1993–2000), who is Dean of Hankamer School of Business at Baylor University, Texas, spoke to the group of Year 12 economists before yesterday’s news that the inflation rate had fallen to 2.3%.

Although this is its lowest level in almost three years, the figure was still higher than expected. Political commentators believe that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called the early General Election on the strength of the apparently improving economic outlook.

Dean Sandeep, who has published widely on inflation dynamics and the Great Recession of 2007–2009, argued that inflation at 2% would limit the Government’s room for manoeuvre in cutting interest rates during times of economic difficulty, making it hard to escape a recession.

He argued instead for adopting a 3 or 4% target, which would give more flexibility with interest rate cuts, without the risk of inflation dropping to 0%. This is the level below which rates cannot be cut (the ‘zero lower bound’) without the potentially disastrous economic risk of people hoarding cash, rather than saving it in banks, the so-called ‘liquidity trap’.

Economics teacher Celia Wallace thanked Dean Sandeep, who spoke remotely to the School’s Gresham Society for Economics. He is a member of QE’s 450 Club member and has been very supportive of the Economics department.

“Sandeep introduced several new concepts to improve pupils’ depth of understanding, including the Fisher Equation to calculate real interest rates and the problem of the zero lower bound, which was the main basis of his talk.

“Within his critique of inflation targeting, Sandeep showed other policy options which countries can often consider, including price-level targeting – where a specific price index is targeted, rather than a growth rate.”

Afterwards, the sixth-formers asked a range of questions, including Avi Juneja’s cautious query about the issue of real wage cuts with a target of 3% or 4% inflation, and Abyan Shah asking about which method of targeting would be most effective for the UK: inflation targeting, price-level targeting, or average inflation targeting (a hybrid of both systems).

Sandeep gave plentiful career advice to all. He strongly expressed the need to follow one’s strengths and passions. He said he had chosen to go into academia and research as it was his passion, while also giving more of a life balance compared to other options, such as  banking.

 

Meeting a Nobel prizewinner

Year 12 economists seized the chance to meet Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin – only a short time after writing an essay about her work.

Hers was one of three lectures given by Nobel prize-winning economists at the LSE within the space of just one week. The sixth-formers attended of their own volition.

Economics teacher Celia Wallace said: “Claudia Goldin’s work on women in the workplace over the centuries has been hugely important, and the boys have enjoyed learning about it.

“I know it was a real thrill for them to be able to hear her lecture, ask her questions and then meet her. They also enjoyed hearing from her fellow Nobel laureate, Esther Duflo, on the same evening, while two of the group attended a lecture by yet another Nobel prizewinner, Joseph Stiglitz, earlier in the week.”

Claudia Goldin, who won her Economic Sciences Nobel prize in October 2023, delivered a lecture entitled Why women won.

Looking particularly at how women’s rights have evolved in the US, she explained how discrimination actually increased during the early decades of the 20th century, as legislation protecting women from certain hazards in the workplace led to women being seen as inferior to men. With women expected to focus on family life, regulation increased, preventing them from working longer hours and earning more pay, and also denying them jo bs, with posts instead reserved for men.

The turning point came in the 1960s and early 1970s, she said. The Civil Rights Movement catalysed protests and a female push for power, leading to legislative change.

One of the boys, Dheeraj Karnati, then put to her a key question that was also in the minds of his fellow QE economists: what was the reaction to the new laws, and how did society feel about women having an equal role with men in the workplace? In response, she noted that many traditionally minded women were against the changes, even more so than men, and openly opposed the women’s movement.

Meeting Claudia Goldin was a real highlight for Shrey Tater, who described her talk as “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to hear a Nobel prizewinner speak – particularly one who is, like Esther Duflo, a woman breaking down barriers in Economics”.

Esther Duflo’s lecture, the second of the evening, focused again on inequality, this time looking at the climate. The 2019 joint Economic Sciences Nobel prizewinner spoke about inequality between emitters, quoting French economist Lucas Chancel’s finding that 10% of the highest polluters worldwide are responsible for 50% of global emissions. Poorer countries also tend to be unequally affected by climate change as they are mostly in warmer places.

When highlighting the ‘mortality cost’ of global environmental damage – amounting to $518 billion in poor countries – she emphasised the necessity of the world committing to mechanisms to cover this sum. Such mechanisms included increasing the existing 15% tax on multinational corporations and an international wealth tax of 2% levied on the 3,000 richest people in the world.

In addition to Dheeraj and Shrey, those attending the lectures included Sushant Aryal, Zain Farooqi, Abyan Shah, Andreas Angelopolous, Vaibhav Gaddi and Rohan Varia.

Vaibhav and Rohan also attended the lecture by Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Economic Sciences Nobel Prize and a former World Bank chief economist. Afterwards, they stressed how important it was for them to hear experts in the field speak and thus to develop their knowledge of Economics and the world around them.

 

Peak performance in the Peak District: boys stretch themselves above and below ground, and on water, too

Year 8 boys enjoyed the challenge of demanding new experiences out in the wilds on a trip to the Peak District.

Thirty-five boys took part in activities including mountaineering, canoeing and caving, before heading down into the city for a visit to the University of Sheffield’s Department of Geography and Planning.

It was the first such QE Geography trip to the Derbyshire Peaks.

Head of Geography Chris Butler said: “The boys enjoyed the trip enormously, as did the staff accompanying them. For many of the boys, it was the first time that they had come close to a true wilderness.”

The primary aim of the visit was to take pupils into an open rural landscape and get them to appreciate some of the processes that have shaped that landscape and how we interact with them. The activities were also designed to extend the boys both physically and mentally.

“Day two saw us hike on to the Kinder Plateau [also known as Kinder Scout] and take in its desolate beauty,” said Mr Butler. “The long walk up to the highest point at 601m saw the boys having to scramble Grindsbrook before topping out. To many, this was quite an accomplishment.”

One of the boys, Siddarth Kulathumani, said: “This was my first time going on this sort of trip where I knew there was going to be a lot of exercise and climbing. At first, I was a bit nervous, but that all changed during the huge climbs, learning with my friends and really pushing myself.”

The party stayed at the Edale YHA accommodation (Youth Hostels Association), which is nestled in the almost inaccessible Edale Valley in Derbyshire.

As soon as the boys had dropped their luggage off on arrival, the group immediately set about climbing Mam Tor, an imposing peak to the south of where they were staying.

“Mam Tor is known as the Shivering Mountain owing to its highly unstable geology. Interbedded with layers of shale and coal measures, the entire mass is slowly slipping towards the southwest,” said Mr Butler.

The climb was conducted in overcast, wet and gloomy conditions. However, on arrival at the top, the sky cleared, and the group were treated to magnificent views of the Hope Valley and the Peak District.

“The principal aim of this day was to make sure that the boys were ready for the challenges that lay ahead. All passed successfully, and by the time the weary party arrived back at Edale, they had walked nearly seven miles and gained nearly 200m elevation to reach the peak. Dinner was enthusiastically wolfed down!”

The next day brought an early start for the climb to Kinder Plateau. “The views from the plateau were simply stunning, and the group were extremely fortunate to have had good weather up there.”

Before lunch, the QE staff made the most of the opportunity to talk to the boys about the importance of upland peat deposits and bogs.

Pupil Adyansh Sahai enjoyed the combination of education and exercise: “The vistas surrounding the Kinder Scout peak were amazing, and the hike itself was incredible, because we were gaining knowledge while having fun.”

It was a steep descent back down to the YHA centre via the Pennine Way, where Mr Butler then regaled the boys with a ghost story after their well-earned dinner.

On day three, the boys were in the hands of the YHA activity centre staff. In the morning, the group split, and half went canoeing on a reservoir, whilst the remaining boys visited a number of large cave systems. Here, they were taught how to pothole and cave.

“Perhaps the most impressive cave was Carlswark Cavern – home to the Oyster Cavern, the largest brachiopod bed anywhere in Europe,” said Mr Butler.

Siddarth said this was his favourite activity, while another of the boys, Arinze Ezeuko, added: “The caving was a great experience as I had never done anything like it before, and it made me realise how complex they truly were.”

After one more night at the YHA centre, the group then took the bus into Sheffield to visit the university. “The staff there gave fascinating talks on some of their research, including research with a PhD student who has been tracking the response of large glaciers and ice sheets to global warming,” said Mr Butler.

They also found out about the department’s work with the Mars Rover, and the role that the Planning Department plays in shaping our cities, not just today but also exploring how cities will look in the future.

“It was a fascinating insight into the subject at university and certainly gave many of the boys pause for thought.”

Mr Butler thanked his colleagues, Eleanor Barrett, Bryn Evans and Celia Wallace, who accompanied him. “I would also like to thank the boys for being such good company. Their superb behaviour, willingness to get involved and genuine interest in what they were doing was acknowledged by the YHA centre staff and by the university staff.”

  • Click on the thumbnails below to view photos from the trip.

 

Birds, basketball, a basilica and fun among the branches – creating memories of a lifetime on QE’s long-running French exchange

Twenty-two Year 8 pupils spent a week soaking up modern French culture and improving their language skills on a trip to eastern France.

The group were kept busy with a host of activities during their stay with pupils from QE’s partner school, Collège St Pierre, from the town of Bourg en Bresse, between Lyon and Geneva.

The trip was the return leg of the exchange, following the visit in February of the French pupils.

Languages teacher Katrin Hood said that the exchange had definitely been a highlight of the year: “It was such a pleasure to see our students rise to the challenge of ‘living like locals’ for a week in another country.”

By spending evenings and the weekend of the trip with families, the QE boys were able to build their confidence in French, as well as experiencing a different way of life.

Pupil Aarav Agrawal, of Pearce House, said: “My partner was David and he was a really nice person and his family really treated me well; especially with snacks! My favourite part of the whole French exchange was probably our visit to the 1055 leisure park with our partners. It had laser tag, VR, bowling and a trampoline park.”

The official programme also included:

  • A joint visit for both the QE boys and their partners to the Parc des Oiseaux (bird park)
  • QE day trip to Lyon, one of France’s biggest cities with a beautiful old town
  • A day at the Collège St Pierre to see lessons take place
  • An interactive quiz about Bourg en Bresse, which lies at the foot of the Jura mountains and is the capital of the ancient province of Bresse
  • An afternoon at Accrobranche (similar to Go Ape).

Several of the boys listed their own highlights. For Noah Green, it was the bird park visit, although he said the whole trip was “definitely the most fun thing” he had ever done as a QE pupil.

Noah’s fellow member of Underne form, Harsh Chavda, said: “I particularly enjoyed going to the market on the last day because it is rare to find such markets here in London. There were so many different shops – selling cheese, olives, bread, desserts, Chinese food, clothes and so much more! Some of us asked the owner of the cheese store to give us his strongest cheese, and we all tasted some. It was so strong and for me, disgusting!

“When we went to Lyon, we learned about the Basilica of Notre-Dame and how it’s dedicated to the Virgin Mary for saving Lyon from the plague.

“My highlight of the trip has to be the basketball match my exchange family took me to, because I have never been to one and the atmosphere in the stadium was so good. All in all, the French exchange trip created memories of a lifetime – such a special experience.”

Accompanying the boys were Ms Hood, Sciences teacher Bryn Evans and cover supervisor Joan Anderson. The exchange with Collège St Pierre has been running since 2010.

“We are very grateful to all of the families who took part for hosting our French guests so well, and to all of our colleagues who have played a part in the success of the trip,” said Ms Hood.

 

 

QE pair shine at prestigious conference on international affairs

Two QE sixth-formers won Top Delegate awards at a Model United Nations conference held at the London School of Economics.

Saim Khan and Chanakya Seetharam were part of a nine-strong group from QE’s Year 12 who took part in the three-day debating event, which simulated the activities of the UN.

Crispin Bonham-Carter, Assistant Head (Pupil Involvement), said: “MUN events not only develop students’ skills in debating but also give them a real understanding of international issues and of how the UN works. The LSE-hosted MUN conference is among the most prestigious, attracting leading schools such as Harrow, Eton and City of London.

“Our party threw themselves into the three days wholeheartedly, playing a full part in the debates and in the social events that were arranged. My congratulations go to Saim and Chanakya for their awards.”

The QE delegates were split among the various committees, including the Security Council. They debated a wide range of topics, including both current conflicts and those of the past, such as the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis.

Saim, a Senior Vice-Captain at QE, later reflected on his experience: “MUN is always an amazing opportunity – as a delegate you become solely a vessel for the opinions of your country, no matter how much they may be at odds with your own personal beliefs. It teaches you the ever-valuable virtues of negotiation and compromise. With other delegates always on the prowl to try and score a hit for themselves at the expense of you and your country, the conference is a true test of wits and cunning!

“Our successes over the weekend included finding a workable, holistic and balanced solution to end decades of ethnic tension and conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the UNSC, the triumphing of the Egyptian cabinet in the Suez canal crisis (putting an end to Britain’s imperialistic goals), and the liberation of Argentina from its neofascist military regime.”

Saim relished his own role representing Malta (“not necessarily the world’s most geopolitically dominant nation”) at MUN.  “Whilst I had to work much harder to establish my initial credibility and convince other delegates that the Maltese were even worth listening to, by the end of the three days I can confidently say that Malta had become the leader of the free world.”

Chanakya won his award for his work as a ICC Justice at the International Criminal Court. “I loved being able to engage with real issues of international law with people who shared my interest,” he said.

Koustuv Bhomwick found himself at the centre of the Suez Crisis debate, representing the then-Egyptian President Gamal Nasser – “an exhilarating experience!” he said. “

In addition to the debates, the delegates enjoyed a ball hosted by the LSE’s own MUN organisation, as well as campus tours and outreach events hosted by LSE staff.

Kanusan Naveedran said: “We were provided with insightful knowledge into LSE student life.” Zaki Mustafa added that the ball was “an excellent social opportunity”.

While the group were disappointed to miss out on the award for best medium-sized delegation (which went to Eton), they were, said Uday Dash, “extremely grateful to the conference for providing us with a platform to discuss real socio-economic and political matters that drastically affect our world today”.

QE also recently enjoyed team success in South Hampstead High School’s Spring Debate Competition. With delegates drawn from Year 8 to 12, three of the four QE teams won three out of four debates, while one senior team – again comprising Year12’s Uday Dash, as well as Year 10’s Rithwik Gururaj and Orko Ghosh – swept all before them to win overall.

 

Toughing it out: Sir Vince Cable spells out need for resilience on visit to QE

Former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable first came to QE in 2016, a few months after losing his Twickenham parliamentary seat and more than a year before he won it back in the 2017 General Election.

Appropriately, then, during a lecture on his second visit, he urged on the boys the need for stamina and resilience.

His lecture came at the invitation of the School’s Politics Society. He duly gave afficionados of British Politics plenty to ponder on, giving his assessment of the likely result of the forthcoming General Election, while addressing the “more interesting questions” about what happens afterwards.

Headmaster Neil Enright said: “Sir Vince is a substantial figure in the British political scene, with a lifetime of experience to draw upon. We are grateful to him for visiting and sharing with the boys his valuable insights and advice.

“He stayed to answer further questions after the end of the formal session and was candid in his views with students. He was also generous with his time, and kindly donated a copy of his book, How to be a Politician, to The Queen’s Library.”

Earlier in the year, the Politics Society welcomed Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate for Chipping Barnet, Dan Tomlinson, and it has previously hosted Theresa Villiers MP, who has held Chipping Barnet for the Conservatives since 2005.

Sir Vince announced his intention to retire from front-line politicis in 2019 and stood down at that year’s General Election. In July 2022, he was announced as Vice President of the European Movement.

His afternoon visit to QE was led by the society’s Rishabh Bhatt, of Year 12. Before taking questions from an audience drawn from all year groups in the Main School Hall, he gave some brief advice to any aspiring politicians. They should understand the importance of:

  • Being a good communicator – across all channels, including broadcasting and social media, yet without neglecting the skills required for speaking to people in person on the ground;
  • Building a team – recognising that even though the focus can often be on individuals, politics is ultimately a team game, so one needs to build a team and work cooperatively with others to get things done;
  • Developing persistence and resilience, cognisant of the fact that any politician is likely to face many setbacks.

With regard to the final point, he recalled that it took five attempts at running for Parliament before he first became an MP: he eventually won his Twickenham seat in 1997. His two-year hiatus from Parliament began as a result of the near-wipeout of the Lib Dems in 2015, yet after he won his seat back, he went on to become his party’s leader, serving for two years before retiring from front-line politics.

He also gave the example of Yvette Cooper, likely to be the next Home Secretary if Labour  win the forthcoming General Election. Although she has always retained her own seat, she has seen her party lose four elections since she was last in the Cabinet from 2008–2010 under Gordon Brown’s premiership.

He noted that the UK’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system is very significant and makes life difficult for smaller parties to break through, with only two parties ever really being in contention. The Lib Dems were aiming to get back to being the third party in the Commons, with the opportunities that presents, such as being able to ask regular questions at PMQs. But, he said, this will depend on what happens in Scotland with the SNP.

Assessing how the General Election may go overall, he said that a Labour government seems the most likely at present, but that it was entirely possible that it would not have the big majority that some, taking their cue from opinion polls, are assuming.

He focused on two questions relating to the election’s aftermath. Firstly, what would become of the Conservative Party if it did suffer the predicted heavy defeat. Would the Conservatives move to the populist right, closer to, or perhaps merging with, Reform UK? Would they attempt to position themselves as moderates in the centre-right – more like PM David Cameron’s coalition in which he served as Business Secretary? Or could the Conservative Party even cease to exist as an election-winning force – declining like the Liberal Party in the 1920s?

Secondly, he wondered, what would Labour actually do in power? They would face a difficult economic situation and the same long-term challenges as the current government, he pointed out, and it was unclear as yet as to how they would respond.

Sir Vince answered questions focussing on his career. These included: his move from Labour to what became the Liberal Democrats alongside the Gang of Four (a group of leading politicians who broke away from Labour in 1981); the 2010–2015 Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition (“a good, stable government… good for the country, but bad for the [Liberal Democrat] party”); the role of tactical voting in the next General Election (“always important”); the prospects in that election for the Lib Dems – they were targeting a return to 30-35 seats, he said; and the sale of Royal Mail when he was Business Secretary (it was necessary and not a bad deal at the time, he said, given that people now communicate electronically, not by letter, so the business model had to change in any case).